Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Extreme and Prolonged Frigid Weather has Consequences

Leftie newspaper commenters have agreed that global temperatures are now 'out of band' for the carbon hypothesis.  I have been setting the hypothesis that it's all ocean currents.

We are getting a tiny bit of heat from the Atlantic right now, just enough to flood the rivers.  Soon, the rivers will build up ice again.  This would be a record.

Natural gas is finally going up again.  It spikes if they run out of their local reserves.  Another month of extreme cold, and you'll see something better than bitscoin.

And OK earthquakes are going up again.  During the freeze, we had about one m3 a week.  Now we are at one m3 a day, and one m4 a week.  That means some fresh-water fracking is starting again.  Another month and we'll see a 4 a day.  This is the rate where we can expect something big.


Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Poor NASA

Reference


I said this a long time ago that nasa is suffering from 'bureaucratic engineering disease'  (bed).  Bed has struck my old company, and we'll see this soon, perhaps.  Those guys can cover anything up.  :)

Good old von Braun loathed the space shuttle.  It was all a thing to look good.  Then the famous accidents, and now I'm sure some ex-engineer screamed against making a shitty platform 'stronger'  It can't be done.  Maybe you can get 50%, but this 'monster bureaucratic rocket', needs many times stronger, and they want to make the rocket heavier.  And this launcher is tilting unloaded!  In order to look better, they are doing one launch on this limp banana. 

Bureaucratic engineering gives us tilting buildings in earthquakes.  Bur. Science gave us the 'Carbon Hypothesis'.  Only spacex is riding the wave right now.  :)


Friday, February 16, 2018

Tiny subduction earthquake hits Mexico



Please remember that an M7.2 is nothing along this gigantic subduction zone.  This is my numero uno zone for a huge M9.  It's so smooth and shiny!  :)  If that happens, all the buildings in Mexico will jump into the air.

This is way above all the other 'dire' zones that the tabloids love.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Time to get your Canadabis plants going



This picture has nothing to do with me.  I got it off the internet.  If I actually had seeds, it is time to start them.  This imaginary plant is in a hydroponic system used to grow microgreens.  It was the only seed left that grew.

Buy your seeds from my buddy at Crop King.  Somebody chose 'Hash Plant' because it is 4% cbd and 12% thc.  It is not strong by modern standards.  I feel that the thc is important as well as the cbd.

This plant has produced the very best health supplement for old people.  It clears the mind and clears all the aches and pains.  And it lasts quite some time without taking anything.  I am convinced that it is curing things, and maintaining good health.  It's magnificent for anxiety.

This far-away plant will grow rapidly and the shoots will be put in soil.  Like last year, they produce a meter-high plant that has a huge crop by the end of September.  If there are lots of shoots, then all the neighbours are lined up.

The shoots are dipped in rooting hormone and then stuck in soil.  The plants are grown in a big pot of soil.  4 plants to a household.  That's enough for a lot of people.

ps. Somebody on the Guardian suggested 'Maple Syrup Hash'.  It will be our biggest export.

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

The Physics of Using Satellites to Determine Global Temperatures

Reference

Subtitle - Global Warming Hypothesis Falls Out of Band

I am not denying anything.  Carbon in the air is bad, bad , bad.  However, I have been going more into the physics.  Eventually, I want to write about how it all happened.

However, this is big news.


The yellow band is the hypothesis, with carbon warming included.  The authors state that the carbon model is the only explanation they had for the rise in temperature.  If it is a good model, then the actual data (black) should be jittering inside the band.  El Nino threw it in for a while, but now it has really fallen out, and will be outside for the next 20 years.

When the observations go out of the band, then the hypothesis fails.  Diehard warmies might reject this.

Since we aren't stating anything here, we look into the physics, just for fun.  Here's the water vapour trend.


I love this, since water vapour is many times the thermal insulator that carbon is.  They say that the carbon is responsible for this rise, in some magic manner.  I won't go against magic!


This is the long-term trace of water vapour.  If only they combined it with the long-term trace of ocean currents.  But, they are specialists.  Anyway, this map correlates exactly with a map of the long-term trace of ocean current vectors.  Two bucks could get you that plot.

--enough for now.

ps.  I'm quite happy that the physicists are poking their heads out from the trenches.  Soon there will be something on convection and the lapse rate.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Ontario Conservative Party Still Weird on the Voting

In order to vote, members will be required to do the following:

Members will receive a unique verification number in the mail.
At this time members will be directed online to provide their unique verification number and verify their membership information currently on record.
Once verified, members will be required to provide a photographed or scanned copy of identification documents in order to vote during the voting period (March 2 – March 8).
A support hotline will be available during this period for those requiring assistance. 
Independent third-parties will be responsible for verifying membership eligibility, processing votes, and securely maintaining personal information. 


They got a third party from an exclusive men's club who will ogling over the id.  :)  Maybe not.  I would have thought that the mail-out would be sufficient.  Looks my plea to the privacy people may have not been heard.

They really need somebody who knows this stuff.

Blame Canada



I was about to say you can't blame Canada for all the cold weather, but I looked at this, and thought "Yes you can." 



Soon, in July, we'll be sending you sweet puffs of the God's Own Smoke.  Then you'll stop blaming us.  :)

The real reason for the cold has been well-explained by somebody.

Earthquake and Extreme Cold Hits the Olympics

They have nothing to do with each other, but I did have a look-see.


They had a small, shallow thrust, about M5, intensity 7.  There is a lot of tectonic action all around, but Korea is considered to be solid.  They are under compression from the subduction zone.  Really, nothing to see here.

The extreme cold is part of the general trend in the North.  Global temperatures are heading the way of Toronto housing prices.  All that nice warm air down south is being swept away.


I hope the wind stops for them once in a while.


Friday, February 9, 2018

Global Temperatures Going Down Again

This is different chart.  For some reason my usual plot from Spencer is not ready.  They must have killed him.  :)  This is the same chart, brightness from the surface.  The big drop of El Nino, then the scary rise (scary for me) in December, and now a good drop for January.  Like the Toronto housing market, I expect this curve to sink to new lows.

Note that all the news says "Lowest temperature in 20 years!".  Wonder why?



Gotta love the British!


If they only knew.....

Toronto Housing Sales Shatter the Bottom of the Chart


I was expecting this last June, which was more than 6 months from the strong signal the previous November.  Look like Toronto sellers can hold their breath for a long time.

Actually I'm expecting that price line to shatter the bottom, too.  That's because there are no listings and people are still holding on.  The banks are running away from this whole thing, but it's too late for them.

So, perhaps the Spring when the desperate listings come out.  Everybody has two houses and the new houses will be finished once the weather warms up.

Thursday, February 8, 2018

Give your passport and license to these guys

Reference



Could there be a problem here?  We just heard how they are cleaning out 'massive corruption' in the party.  Anyway, if you are a pretty young thing that lists 'exclusive men's club hostess', please do not do this.  :)

This is general cluelessness.  They could use the signing authorities that the CRA uses, or google, or other methods.  Scanning every piece of id you own is like giving Apple your full retina scan.  :)

ps.  Mr. Tickles will love it!

pps.  I just sent this to the On Privacy people.

Micro Ice Age takes a big hit in January

To recap, I have called the 20 cycle the 'Micro Ice Age' as opposed to the Little Ice Age, or Mini Ice age cycle of 300 years.  This ice is a rebound from the 20 years of heat energy build-up in the Pacific.  That collapsed with the monster El Nino giving us a horrible summer, but really weird (hot) Fall.

Residual heat is screwing up my nice picture of a monotonic fall in global temperatures.  The microwave guy must have went South and is very late.  However, the Arctic ice volume chart shows a warm Arctic January.

I saw that in the daily charts.  Lots of heat was coming up through Moscow from Africa.  It's still coming.



Britain is still freezing from the lack of Gulf Stream heat, but the Arctic is warm.  This shows in the ice volume chart.


2017 was crossing lanes and building up to record ice.  All of a sudden, January has our race car drop out of the race.  I suspect that when we finally see the global temp chart, it won't be falling.

I have hope for February or March.  That weird African back-eddy can't last forever.  The Arctic ocean current hammering the GS is still strong.  There is no heat in the Pacific.  The Micro Ice Age goes on. (maybe)

ps.  Note that warm, moist air is going over the Sahara Desert.  Weird.  Anyway, we have never had these sat views for the last turnover in 70's.  I suspect the Atlantic cools by these air disturbances caused by the Pacific.  It's the only thing that makes sense.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

A Plague on All Our Houses - Tilted Buildings in Earthquakes

I like SpaceX.  If they muck up the physics then things go boom.  I suspect they misjudged the exponentials for a booster coming from a much higher altitude.  But they have instruments and believe the results.  This won't happen again.

Not so with Earthquake Engineering.  They caught the disease of 'social physics' many years ago.  Everything was 'debated' and they never believed what the instruments and observations were telling them.  Unlike spacex, things don't go boom while they are still around, only much later.  They make their money hanging on to 40 year old assumptions.  And they make even more money when they are flouncing around hanging up red tags.  This is a business of 'reputation' and "veritas in wine".

So, for the last several earthquakes, we've had buildings tilting.  The engineering world attacked resonance, with 'energy absorbing' and wonderful moment connectors.  The buildings do not pancake.

Is this a victory for engineering?  Are tilting buildings good for Society?  Don't forget that if a cheap condo just tilts a little bit, it is unservicable and has to be destroyed.  Do you want every building in your city doing that?  At only 40 cm/s, pgv?

So, the great failure of this industry is ignoring real physics, and going for the imaginary physics of the shake table.  Expect more tilting buildings, and if you live in one, forget the grand piano on wheels.  :)

Also, once again, we have demonstrated the uselessness of 'early warning'.

Note in passing

Peak accelerations flatten out on soft soil at 30%.  That's why everybody uses this number, and it works well on a shake table.  PGV continues to zoom up with larger earthquakes.  Nobody wants to tackle that.


Didn't pancake.


Taiwan Earthquake - Beautiful Velocity Pulses

In my humble opinion, peak ground velocity (PGV) is the only engineering parameter worth anything.  Peak ground acceleration is just to mucky, and never correlates with damage.  Lucky for me, the Taiwanese agree, and plot pgv right away.  These are beautiful pulses of 60 cm/s, more than enough to take down buildings, but not those on deep piles to refusal.




The pgv gets long and rumbly on the basins.



The pga plots are pure fuzz.  This was a clean, thrust earthquake, exactly what I expect in Oklahoma.

Appendix

5 cm/s - kills people in stone rubble houses

40 cm/s  - tilts cheap condos by a few inches

50 cm/s - structural damage to houses

60 cm/s - tilts cheap condos by several feet, collapse 70's concrete buildings

80 cm/s - puts condos on their side, total destruction of old building stock

100-200 cm/s (m7-8 thrust) -  Good Luck!

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Taiwan Shallow Thrust Earthquake

Reference




This has been a shallow thrust earthquake, the only type that can do real damage.  There is no earthquake warning for this.  No deadly earthquake can have an effective early warning.  The only solution is to put everything on piles.  A wonderful early warning system like in Taiwan only makes everybody happy, until their building falls down.  Had this been an m7, that tilted building wouldn't be intact.

'Social physics' demands more early warning systems.  :)

Extreme Cold Bothers the Winter Olympics -- The Micro Ice Age

Reference

I find it ironic that our Micro Ice Age (mia) is freezing the Winter Olympics.  It is probably the coldest one since the last mia in the 70's.

So, although the ice is building up everywhere, there are those who 'deny' the cold.  So, I like to come up these little snippets.  My usual charts of ice volume and global temperature are late as usual.  Perhaps tomorrow.



Ocean water temperature.  Yellow is my marker for cold.  This area should be warm since the North Pacific current is equivalent to the Gulf Stream, and both are the only vehicles to bring heat energy to our cold North.  When they stop we have our micro or mini ice ages.

The warm wet air follows these channels (the currents cause a low pressure trench), and nothing is happening for the Olympics.


They are distributing bum warmers for the opening ceremonies.  Meanwhile I am told by my Guardian warmies to ignore the British tabloids about the mia.


I'm very polite to warmies after they got me labelled as a fake reviewer on ammiezon.


ps.  As a note to my friend who forgets about my ten thousand back posts.

Micro Ice Age - the 20 year West Pacific cycle, of which the 7 year El Nino cycle is a part.

Mini Ice Age - the 300 year cycle of both equatorial currents

Ice Age - the 10,000 year cycle of ice advance


pps. The Very Large Carbon and Climate Cycle - 300 million years

extra - just watched Falcon Heavy, a great application of basic physics.  I am also collecting headlines, this not from a tabloid.


I'm not doing anything on the Guardian, those people will kill me.  I'm just gloating here, since I had said there (in the fall) that they were going back to Jane Austen winters.  Their final word before the attack was "You're nuts, it's always getting warmer."  Don't tell anybody about me..... shhh.

Monday, February 5, 2018

Earth's magnetic field to reverse

Probably not.  I haven't read anything serious about this, and since the outer core is totally chaotic, there cannot be any predictions.  I lump this with all the other 'predictions' without physics.

I do know that a reversal was captured in an ancient firepit.  Nothing happened and life went on.

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Doug Ford All the Way

I've made up my own imaginary DF, I call him Sam.  I have all sorts of nice speeches from him on g+ which Sam is using exclusively.  Perhaps they will combine, or perhaps I am dreaming.

ps.  Sorry, but Imaginary Sam has resigned, due to an impure thought at his high school prom.

pps.  DF has realized my worse nightmare and has started to go all Trumpy.  He will go all the way into the dumpster.  The political elite lady also doesn't have a chance.  Too bad.

Saturday, February 3, 2018

The UK without the Gulf Stream



You can see here that the UK is on the same latitude as Northern Labrador.  Upon first look it should have the same climate.  But luckily they have the Gulf Stream which normally bathes the whole place in warm tropical water.

But that was then.  I said a while ago that the Arctic current would soon stop it's dalliance around Greenland and come straight down.  You can see that.  The cold water mixes with the warm water, and guess what?  The current stops.

It's getting worse by the minute.  And my fav. British tabloids are having great headlines.  This amazing weather is all without an Iceland volcano.  The British Warmies don't dare raise their heads now.  They just hope the cold goes away.  :)

Finally, a true Arctic Vortex

This was a hallmark of the 70's.  We had some of these in the Fall, but now this is a true 40 below vortex.



This is not a heat vortex, like a tornado or hurricane.  It's a mechanical vortex, caused by the rotation of the Earth, and curling wind systems.  It works like a Dysan vacuum cleaner.  The pressures and temperatures approach that of outer space.

To quote the nature shows, we know more about the Moon, than this interesting phenomenon.  That's because all the Nasa Warmies have killed physics.  And trumpypants is killing everything else.  Canadians should be the ones studying it, but we are solidly warmyish.

The main impact on Society, is that these give rise to Ozone Holes.  That's to be expected when you suck down a hunk of space vacuum.  Yet, without a speck of experimentation, we all went to an imaginary chlorine reaction.  That caused all the chlorine coolants to be replaced with fluorine stuff, that is difficult in your air conditioner.  They are both chemically similar, and you don't see people putting fluorine in swimming pools.  :)

Now that we are freezing, I expect the Ozoners to take up the slack left by the Warmies.  They are measuring chlorine compounds at 40,000 feet from jet planes.  The irony, of course, is that they are championing severe clear-air convection which brings those compounds up there.  Carbon warming can only happen if there is no clear-air convection.  :)  I love it.

So, for my 10 people who like physics, expect a ban on all chlorine compounds.  This will cost the World Economy at least as much as Warming.  And nobody will spend two bucks on physics.

ps.  for my confused buddy.  The Carbon Theory of Warming is that co2 acts an insulator for the Earth.  This can only be done by assuming a layered air model in the polar latitudes.  Everybody knows there is severe convection in the tropics.  The air layers have to be rigid like glass.  Co2 is like adding some tinting to the glass and it retards infra-red radiation from the surface of the earth, and they assume that the great majority of the earth's heat is put out to space in this manner.  So, no clear air convection.  The New Ozoners are saying the opposite, that severe convection in the polar latitudes are bring up short-lived chlorine compounds that will cause ozone holes.  In reality, severe clear air convection brings heat up and then it is radiated away from the top of the stratosphere.  They can't have their cake and eat it, too.  However, social physics is capable of anything.


Thursday, February 1, 2018

The Loser Toyota Hybrid 12V AGM Battery



Look what I've had to do to keep the Camry Hybrid running until I get this all sorted out.

My long tale of Toyota Woe started with my brand new Hybrid Highlander.  The 12V battery failed right away.  Luckily Yorkdale could measure it and replaced it under warranty.

After 7 years the battery failed on the Camry.  This is good performance for an absorbed glass mat battery (AGM).  On a hybrid, the battery does not start the car, but just keeps the computer going, so it can start the car from the main storage batteries.  The battery has a ridiculously light load.

The new battery failed within a year.  It doesn't fail like a standard lead-acid battery, it just loses capacity.  I brought it in when the car couldn't last overnight, and then the car wouldn't start.  I was so clever this time.  I brought the car to my favourite local mechanic who ordered the battery from Shaw Toyota.

Oh woe is me that I went this route.  The battery didn't last a year.  My mechanic tested it as you should for an AGM and it failed.  But cheapo Shaw never accepted this.  They tested like a lead-acid battery and said it was good.  Back and forth we went.  I went to Toyota Headquarters and no response.  Finally, I phoned the Big Shaw himself (manager) and threatened thermonuclear social media war.  I got a new battery.

The battery didn't last a year.  I had taken it in to Yorkdale for the intverter oil change, and they said the battery had failed the test.  But they said they were not responsible for the warranty, it was the other dealer.  Like heck I was taking it there!

I politely emailed Toyota Canada about transferring the warranty.  This time they responded and asked more questions.  I answered the questions, and was getting a bit hot under the collar.  Did the dealers pay for the warranty themselves?  Why were they so cheap?  This was a lot of my stomach acid under the bridge.

Toyota no longer responded, thus this article.  I will send it to them.  However, they know nothing of social media and reputation risk.  I'm sure they don't have a service and would not see it even if my friends copy it on FB.  Do it guys!

They are the stogiest of horrible bureaucracies.  They have no more control over cheap dealers who destroy their reputation than Tim Hortons has over cheapo billionaire heirs.  No young person should buy from them.  My kids don't.  I'll probably buy from them, but not from dealers.  You save thousands if you buy from an internet fleet service.

Do not buy this battery if it fails on you.  Get a cheap AGM from Costco.  There's all sorts of stuff on how you pry off the thermo sensor on the old battery.  At least you have a good warranty from Costco, there is no 'effective' warranty from Toyota.

ps.  Toyota is hiding.