Global air temperatures are dropping like the Toronto housing market. I mentioned this in a comment and they all go on about how a 30 year average is better than a 1 year moving average. I mentioned that in order to say this, you are making assumptions about the physics, ie, there is a 'memory' or momentum going beyond 1 year. But no, these people just look at charts.
Right now most people are enjoying a warm September. There are huge air gyres (slower than a vortex) that are sucking up the last warmth from the Atlantic belt. The Arctic vortex, however, is strong, and will show a good build-up of ice volume.
ps. having lots of fun on the Guardian. I am casting a hypothesis, like I did for the Toronto housing market. By this time next year, global temperatures will have fallen out of all warmie noise bands, and ice volume will have zoomed.
And yet, the warmies will not cry 'uncle', just like the ozoners never did. That's because there are no noise (error) bands, and they'll just say that the oceans sucked up all the heat like a vacuum cleaner. :)