Tuesday, July 4, 2017

Effects of El Nino not dead yet

I was having a discussion with warmies on the Guardian, the last great defender, when they hit me with the 'fact' that El Nino was over, and it was still warm.  That's why you can never win in these debates because they keep pulling fake bunnies out of the hat.

Also there was the problem of 'sizing' El Ninos for comparison.  This is a standard earthquake problem, so I propose that the 'magnitude' is proportional to the area under this graph.

That makes this El Nino a Magnitude 8 and 1997 was an m7 or 6.  The warmies have their "Chart of a Million Corrections", with no error bars.

They are happy because they recently corrected satellite measurements to fall in line with the main curve.  I suggested they should correct for the current El Nino, but they said it was dead.

You can see that Europe is being hit by direct hot air from the Gulf Stream which is super-powerful right now.  The North Pacific current is dead, so Alberta is being hit directly by warm ocean air.  That El Nino temperature blip has to fall, the physics demands it.  But not yet.

The warmie chart is going to fall like Toronto housing prices.  I won't be happy because I'll be freezing.

NOTE:  blah, I should read things more.  That last chart is still satellite.  I can't find the 'official' warmie chart, although I have looked heavily.

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