Thursday, June 22, 2017

Global temperatures for the next 10 years

We had our wonderful warm time, now we go back to 70's cold.  Our gorming philosopher friends will have a tough time trying to argue out of this one.  But that's what happens to people who ignore physics or the scientific method.

While they can argue all the want about how radiation trumps convection in heat transport, we can concentrate on physics.  The big physics controlling our temps is the state of the ocean.  Water transports and stores heat 4000 times greater than air by volume.  So all our heat transport is water, not air.

If we didn't have oceans the whole planet would rigidly stratify, like Jupiter.  Lucky for us, the Pacific Ocean holds all its heat for a number of years, and then has to burst out.  That's called El Nino and this one was so huge that it squeezed out all our heat like a lemon.

Our Gulf Stream is generally not bothered by that cycle, and her you can see it in full force.  Last year it broke up for a while.



The Pacific is now dead.  It's hopeless quivering mass.  Normally, the northern Pacific current supplies North America with cool moisture.  The Gulf Streams hits us with hot and humid weather.



We would be quite happy if the Gulf air plume stayed over us forever.  Then we would have Florida weather forever.  But the northern air has to come down.  Normally, the nice Pacific sends warm air into the Yukon and then it descends.  But that's not going to happen for 10 years.

We've established a new, horrible pattern.  The Gulf Stream air plume goes over Europe, over nasty Russia and then comes down on us.  Very cold.


This is the latest moist air map.  Our cold air whips around the North Pole and then comes down on us.  If it can fight off the Gulf plume, then Texas stays warm and we freeze.

This is a wonderful time.  For the last few big cycles we haven't had these maps.  There's been no physics in climate studies.  At least you can see it here, and nowhere else.  :)


Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Toronto Listings Panic

I was just up in country north of Toronto.  Listings are everywhere.  I haven't seen anything like that since the last time.  Trouble is that most people will want the peak price and will hold on for quite a while.  It was like that when I sold my house months after the last crash.  The people who were selling the house I wanted thought they could get the old price.  But I had discounted my old house by 20% to sell it.  Because it was an estate sale and was listed for a very long time, I eventually got the new house at 20% off.

So, all you people who have made tons of money flipping houses, take the haircut and sell.

Linux - computer survives massive Debian turnover

The King is dead, long live the King!  I always thought that was stupid, but Debian Jessie has gone and the new stable version is Stretch.  My main computer is always on 'testing', but the second computer was on Jessie, the old stable.  I was using that computer mainly for video processing, but now it's mostly for storage.  Anyway, I changed the /etc/apt/sources.list to Stretch, and let 'er rip.

aptitude update and aptitude upgrade gave me an awful lot of upgrades.  There were endless conflicts, but then it recommended aptitude --full-resolver, which fixed a lot.  Still mucky, and I did a few 'aptitude -f install' commands until everything was clean.  All working!

Monday, June 19, 2017

Cottage diary

Friday - sunny and hot, with thunderstorms everywhere.  My boat is finally fixed and it starts up fine.  We can stay outside until 7 pm, until the press of mosies moves in on the insect lamps.

Sat. - The thunderstorms hold off until the afternoon.  The kids go swimming and last a few seconds.  My son and I enjoy the sauna, and I go through two dip cycles into the icy water.  I have a feeling we will use the sauna a lot this summer.

The water pump starts turning on randomly.  I check for leaks and don't find any.  I turn it off for the night.

Sun - the pump is buggered.  The footvalve has drained.  I haul it out of the lake.  The whole morning nothing works.  I finally give up, and have ordered a new pump.  This old pump has lasted about 50 years, but it's all corroded.


Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Getting Ready for Canada-Cannabis Day - Part 1

One year from now we will be celebrating Canada's 151'st birthday.  But nobody cares about that, since it is really Cannabis Day.

I'm starting the series early, since it's time to start planning.  All things in italics are for legal purposes.  I am suitable to instruct since I have had endless disasters, and not a single success.  Everything I write here is for entertainment purposes and has no basis in reality.

You don't want to buy that crap off the street.  Old people should say they are losing their memory, and get a prescription.  I'm trying to get all the old people around me to go that route, but no success yet.  It is best that you grow your own.  We are talking pharmaceutical hemp here, since there is no THC in the plants until the day you harvest.

With all my disasters, I emphasize that you need a hydroponic system if you are imagining that you are growing in your imaginary garage.  The garage is full of that nasty fungus which lives in the soil, and kills everything.

In this first part, you can starting thinking about where you want to put your vertical farm.  And farm it is, for a while, since I have found that the best thing you can do is grow microgreens to get things settled.  You need a 4x4 x 7 feet high grow tent, and you can clean out a corner to put it in.

Perhaps later in the fall, we can discuss getting the system booted up to grow peas and sunflower sprouts.

-- to be continued

ps.  I got some letters already.

Dear Fish, you are an idiot.  Why should I follow instructions from someone who has never had a success?
-signed Humourless Grump

Dear Grump, You are correct.  You should go to the Dark Web and follow the anonymous instructions from professional growers who want to sell you stuff.  That's how I started.

*********
Dear Fish, you are pathetic.  I will not raise a finger to go after you.
-signed Big Trumpy Cop

Dear Trumpy.  You are so smart.

**********
Dear Fish, I've heard this stuff is bad for you.
-signed Inno Cent

Dear Inno, The years of prosecution have made this very bad indeed.  Due to the regime, cannybis has evolved to pure concentrated thc.  This is processed with explosive devices into a pellet of 100% thc.  Do not use this stuff!  It will kill you, unless you are a cigarette smoker, then don't worry about it.  If you are a teenager, forget all about your hopes and dreams.  You can be brilliant, but you'll end up on midnight tech support forever.

Kansas earthquakes caused by injection

Reference



I just saw this map and I am quite amazed.  You can only get injection when you have fractured rock lying over the Precambrian, like the Bruce Black Hole.  Here you have the main megathrust heading NE and a perfect right-angle transform fault to the NW.  You can nominally inject into the fractured limestone but if the volumes are large enough, this frack waste is injected into the granite basement rock.

The fun thing is that you can inject all the deep saltwater you want and there are no earthquakes.  Inject gas fracking waste and the earthquakes pop like party balloons.  That's what is happening in the upper NE corner of Kansas.  The earthquakes are going nuts there, but there's nobody to feel them.  But yet, they still happen.  Now they are getting m4's every day, soon they'll m5's, and so on.

The Kansas earthquakes are marching down the transform or adjustment fault as they get bigger.  The strain field is activating earthquakes on the main zone, coming up to meet them.


Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The Last Geotechnical Engineers



There I am in the crowd.  Most of us will be the last geotechnical engineers you'll ever see, and the rest worked with us in the old company.  We all had very old phones, with no resolution, which I think is best when you take pictures of old people.  This one is the resolution of a polaroid picture.  :)

Two of my buddies are there that are still working, on the opposite side of me, with the Bruce Black Hole.  They get paid, regardless.  I don't.

Bruce deep black hole to rise from the dead

I just had a great lunch with the old geotechnical gang from the old company.  The feeling is that the Liberals have run out of stupid questions to ask, and opg has flooded the place with stupid answers.  They can't sit on their collective rears any more.  That means they have to fish or cut bait.

The Liberals can't cancel the whole thing.  That would be a decision.  No, their only choice is to go ahead with a bunch of weasely conditions that will never be met.

When they go ahead, I hope they provide lots of pictures, like the stupid Niagara tunnel.  That's fun for us geotechnical groupies.  Otherwise they would shut everything up like the nuclear plants.  Blah.

ps. okay all you whiners, this is done deal.  Use what little political clout you have to open up the site.  Have them take a lot of pictures to show how good they are, and I can tear them apart.  :)

Monday, June 12, 2017

Don't you dare buy a house right now!

Reference

This guy thinks 40%, but only in a couple of years.  I say that by the end of the year.  It all started before 2008.  The Canadian banks were too dumb to get into the mortgage security market in the States.  Then the US crash, and our banks with all this money.  Yeah, the gov't stepped in with almost no interest.  The banks went nuts.

Look at the condo cranes, and the massive housing tracts in the GTA.  All that is financed with bank money.  All the available money went into that, instead of startups, forcing my son to go to Palo Alto.  Not a speck of productivity improvement.

Now, we pay the piper.  40% means horrible things, and they can't reduce interest rates.  A zero dollar, no vacation for me down south.  :(  Tuck in to survive, we'll be like Iceland, after their banks crashed.  At least they had lots of fish.  I have my Victory Garden.  :)

ps. if I were selling right now to get out of the market, I would ruthless discount 10-20% and take the offer by the richest person.  They are making a bet that things will hit bottom at 20%.  I would sell and then rent places around the world.  Guatemala is cheap, armed guard included.  :)

Two new Kansas earthquake hotspots attempt to join



This is darn exciting.  The mysterious Kansas hotspot in the middle of nowhere is extending its strain field and activating the top of the main zone.  Never seen anything like that.  Must be because natgas is ticking up again.


ps.  You'll notice that there is no involvement by the feds in any of this earthquake business.  The reason why is left as an exercise for the reader.  :)

pps.  Kansas Mystery Spot spewing m4's every day.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Cottage Report


Stylized Google photo.  Taken with the kodak.  I bought this big Coleman shelter at Costco, and it's real nice.  Goes up quick, and the steel all folds into one thing.  So I can take it down for a thunderstorm or a big gale.  The other ones succumbed to big winds coming out of nowhere.  So it will be fun to beat the world's record taking it down as a big black thunderhead is swooping in.

Friday - nice and calm.

Hot and humid Saturday, big winds came up overnight and on Sunday.  We went swimming in the 60 F water.  After 3 jumps I was lasting 4 seconds.  Dog jumped in for sticks forever.  She's now recovering at home.

Blackflies gone, 2 insect lamps can keep you out until 8 pm, then the horde of mosies is too thick.  Dragonflies everywhere.

Large m4 thrust earthquake in Arkansas



l


Widely and strongly felt.  This will teach them that they just can't dump all their frack waste in OK.  The strain field of OK will activate everything.back

ps. Back up to an official m3.6, some stations called it a 3.8


Friday, June 9, 2017

Cheapest Enzyme Cleaner

Worst marketing effort I ever saw, but this is super concentrated, and 3 times cheaper than cleangreen, or the other one I bought.  Only thing that really works on mould, without killing your nose.




Wipes the bugs right off your car, and kills grease on the bbq.

Amazon super toy



 I feel like I died and went to heaven, to have this drop on me. I used to be a big photo guy, but then I saw that everybody had better pictures than me on the internet. So I gave up the big camera and went to my phone. On our trip to the islands, I took all the photos on the phone, using everything that Google threw in. I thought, why don't they have a phone that is more like a camera? And this is it. I won't give up my Nexus 5x, to use this as a regular phone, but I'll use it as a camera first/phone. The pictures are dynamic, and they can really put in some good software for the 21 mp camera. The big circle thing is cosmetic, but we'll soon see extra lenses that hook on by magnets unto the steel rim. It only runs Android 6.0 but that will change. There's a nice ridge at the end for holding it. Buy this as a super adult toy. :)

**That was my Amazon review.  Great camera.  Kodak Ektra, having trouble with link.




Great on automatic setting, which is all I would use.


Monday, June 5, 2017

Severe oscillations for Toronto housing



He put 'Wow' on his chart and that it is.  A total listing panic combined with a buyer strike.  Sales times prices gives and idea of the money in the system.  Again, if a large amount of money came in, then this could settle.  Faint hope.

ps I just read that new buyers welcome this.  Be careful what you wish for.  There's a very real chance that prices will drop below the banks' estimate of 20%.  All recent jobs have been with banks and the housing industry.  A major drop will unleash a cataclysm. I give it 100% but nobody reads me.  :)

Enzyme cleaner

I got Natures Eradicator on ammie, but it's sold out now.  So no link.  But I got something better, a drain cleaner using enzymes.  I just have to figure out the dilution.  All the grease on the bbq was melted.



This is the stuff to use on your new air conditioner to melt the bugs.  No paying the big bucks.  :)

--typing no good since I took a good slice off my finger.  My all-natural super cure is working wonders staving the horrible pain and speeding up healing.  You have to wait until next year for yours.  :)

The Trump Recession

At one time there was talk of the trumpyboom.  Money fled Toronto housing and went to NY stocks.  Now look at the natgas futures.


I base my OK earthquake rate projections on this, which is the futures price.  At the beginning of the season, the earthquake energy rate was super hot, going at one m4 a day.  Now it's barely an m4 a week.  So sad.  The gas people think trumpy will lead everybody into a hole.

Saturday, June 3, 2017

Cottage Report

Friday - went early, no traffic, very nice weather.  The mechanic came and fixed my bilge pump. went off the bracket.  They probably tipped the boat upside down when storing it.  :)

Sat. -- hot and sunny.  Lots of dragonflies roaming the skies.  No bugs to speak of during the day.

Sunday - lots of rain coming in.  Time to sneak out early.

Friday, June 2, 2017

El Nino still going strong

In physics terms, the El Nino is a time when the Earth dumps a huge amount of heat into space.  You can't expect this to be a uniform process, especially when chaotic ocean currents are involved.  And this was the strongest El Nino, and it just won't die.

I had expected to title this "Trumps leaves just as global warming ends", but the graph just doesn't show the expected plunge.


It's still way up there, in heat dumping mode.  Boy, are we going to get a cold decade!  So, we can expect a summer of the usual headlines.  "Summer warmer than ever"  (never mind the rate of increase).  "We're all going to die"  etc.

Plot reference

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Lessons for old people

Right now my neighbour is hanging from a ladder up on the roof.  "In the 47 years I worked, I never had an accident."  I can't stand watching him, drilling with no eye protection.

It has become a thing with us baby boomers to sell our comfy Toronto houses and go up North to the rugged ruggedness.  My relatives just did it to a big house-cottage on extremely rugged land, that's like a cliff down to the lake.  First month of planting flowers and she tore all the ligaments in her foot.

Alright old people!  You are not made of rubber any more.  Get romantic notions out of your head.  Pay young people to take the fall.  They'll just get up.  Do not go into the wilderness, those old people you see there have lived in the woods all their lives.  They are a very small percentage remnant, and have a lot of dead people behind them.

Toronto Received Brazilian Largess

Reference




Huge sums were deposited in Swiss bank accounts, or laundered via overseas property deals or smaller companies.

Please subscribe to the Guardian like I did.  They are the last people to write these things.

In the next few days, we'll find out how much the Toronto housing market has fallen.  Following the standard pattern, it will take 6 months to reach bottom.  Big money like this has to be laundered.  If some Brazilian typing clerk suddenly has a big house in the hills, she has to say she made it all speculating on condos in Toronto.

This was 5 billion dollars that had to be laundered.  The Toronto market will fall by at least that amount, probably more if you shave off 30% from a million million-dollar properties.  This money stopped at the same time the Chinese money did, when all these people were getting arrested. Also we can count on several billion in drug money.  I'm waiting for another big scandal where the numbered Ontario companies helped, perhaps Mexico or Italy.  :)