Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Toronto housing market is one big Ponzi scheme

Reference

Still a couple months to go before we can officially call it a crash.  That timing is totally dependent on desperate sellers, and how long they can hold out.  Still no listings in the neighbourhood.

But this stuff is coming out.  Toronto was such a hot market for the Chinese before Nov 8, that would do anything to get in.  Then trumpy attacked and, as well, the hot money tap was turned off in China.  These scams are coming out because in any Ponzi scheme you depend on money coming in to pay off the 'investors'.  Once that stops, the scheme collapses.  They mention $1B, it's probably more.

For the market, in general, there is the 'Greater Fool Belief'.  It's sometimes called 'theory', but let's not tarnish the Scientific Method here.  :)  It's the belief that you can pay any price for anything as long as you think there are bigger fools out there.  That was the frenzy BT (before trumps).

Anyway, go back to sleep until June.  You can't really tell anything before then because you have no idea how many people are holding multiple housing units.  It was the standard way to make money in the outer house zone, so I suspect it is a lot.

US starts it's attack on Canada

Reference


Every populist, reading from the Big Book of Nastyism, requires a fake enemy to distract from the fact he isn't doing anything.  Trumpies started with the Chinese but found they were required for North Korea.  He has settled on Canada.

But we'll get our revenge.  He has got the Oklahoma earthquake zone really popping with increased fracking.  Won't be long now before the earthquakes stop all US fracking.  Then they'll pay through the nose for Canadian oil.  :)

Next, we'll expect an attack on maple syrup.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Beautiful but useless Ottawa earthquake article

Reference


On the whole, I like it when a dying newspaper puts out something like this.  Newspapers live on anxiety, and something like raises the stomach acid.  Ottawa foundations vary from the very best (solid rock) to the very worst (Leda Clay).  The article left out studies that show Leda Clay amplification of 100 times in terms of PGV.


Saturday, April 22, 2017

Add years to your life

I found out that more old people are dying around me.  All are over-weight pear-shaped old men (and ladies).  My final product cures that.  :)

This is the fitness bracelet that will take you permanently to a svelte body.  Enjoy playing with your grandchildren, if the kids ever get off Tinder and do something.  I have chosen the brand new Fitbit Alta rose-gold, because it is so beautiful and expensive that you wouldn't dare let it down.  If you are working at the computer all day, it constantly nags you to get up every hour and do 250 steps.  It has virtual hikes at Yosemite or New York City.  You can issue challenges to your friends and you can't lose because you have Rosey Goldy.



Honestly this is the last one because my wife loves it so much.

Friday, April 21, 2017

More essential stuff

My mercenary streak continues.  The last one was so successful, that I got 2 clicks and one order.  That will probably give me $2.  I will continue in the tone of the famous hammer-schlammer catalogue.

******
This is the light you always wanted.  Good for those miserable storage spaces under the stairs and such where you have to go in by flashlight, and never find anything you want.  Charges with a standard usb and only turns on with movement.  The battery is good for months.  Comes off with a magnetic strip for charging.


********
This is the bum cream that turns out to be the best hand lotion you'll ever use.  Physics dictates that nothing penetrates our layer of dead skin, or the oxygen would kill us.  So all those super-expensive moisturizers do is put on a layer of oil to slow down the moisture leaving the skin.  This stuff does it better with an exotic polymer.  It is dry, and it provides an extra layer against stuff which dissolves the dead skin layer.  My wife loves it for the hands and keeps stealing the tube.  It is also the best stuff for an embarrassing anal rash which some people I know may or may not have.

Darn!  It's all sold out from Prime where it sells for $7, and all the sleazies have it for $30.  I won't list it.

Found it.



********

This is the solar light you've been waiting for.  It has a chance to last a while.  Uses lithium batteries, and it has the latest COB (chips on board) led panels which are super bright.  Brag to your friends.  Soon all led lights will be like this, it has something like 3 times the lumens per watt of the other stuff.



Can't think of anything more.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Like White Sheets in the Sun

Once in a while, I'll push a good product (Shades of Gweneth!).  The last was my coffee roaster, which I'm still using all the time, and makes you healthy.  This time it is an air filter, which uses uv-c on titanium dioxide.  t-ox is just white paint, or whitening in sheets.  It's used everywhere.  When sunlight hits it, there is a marvelous reaction.  It might be the reason that fresh air is so anti-bacterial.  This is much better than the old 'negative ion' crap which always gave off enough ozone to kill you.





My old air filter gave up after 10 years, so I just recently bought this.  For now, I'm going with all the official replacements, rather than make my own, because they last a long time and are reasonably priced. You really, really need it come air conditioning time.  Air conditioned air is so dead you can feel it.

Here's the coffee roaster, only 2 left from Amazon at a reasonable price.  I got the 3 year Amazon warranty with it.



Get this, use a light-medium roast with Guatemala beans and you'll live forever.  :)  If only my doctor had done this.  :(




Trazodone in the News

Reference

Traz is an anti-depressant, and this news makes me happy.  For the last couple of centuries, the only cure for Hereditary Intellectual Depression was a bullet to the head, or lots of alcohol, which was the same thing.  :)  Now we have great drugs, and one that I'm taking is traz.  Yeah, I won't get Alzies!  Have to tell my shrink tomorrow.

I hoped they would try CBD and THC.  These have good potential to be a brain wonder drug.  But the researchers aren't based in Canada, so it might not be politically correct.  :)

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Over-Steering the Toronto Housing Market

Reference

Yeah, this will one of the definitive moments for the hind-sight of the Toronto housing market.  All the foreign money left in November with the trumpy bond route.  This is icing on the cake.  Next thing you know, they'll go after the numbered Ontario company giant money laundry.

Everybody told them to wait and see if there was a classical Spring market.  There wasn't.  Almost no new listings in the neighbourhood.  That would tell somebody there is something seriously wrong.

Anyway,we have to wait for our horribly slow numbers from the sleazy real-estate people.  The depth of the crash really depends on how strung out everybody is.  I was predicting that in June the listings would zoom up and the prices crash.  Now, with all this over-steering, we'll see no listings and prices crashing,  I don't know what that will mean, but I think people can only hold on for another month or so.

ps.  It's official now.  The Chinese will walk away from their condo deposits.  Expect blood on the streets.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Oklahoma - no injection, no earthquakes

One big question is that, if they finally become scared with an 6.5, will the earthquakes stop on a dime?  This Easter weekend shows that there is hope.  No injection on Good Friday, something which I am sure about in OK.  :)  And the earthquakes stop.  I don't know when they'll start again, maybe Monday, which will give everybody a nice weekend.


ps.  it has started again on Sunday.

pps.  Since by Wed. it hasn't really popped up again, I'll just call it a random quiet phase.  bah.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Alex Asmis, dead at 21


Humanity's luck is such that whenever we enter the doom and gloom of imminent destruction, an angel is sent to save us.  This has been throughout history, and without those angels, we wouldn't be writing this.  With whatever makes you feel better, you can believe that this is dumb luck by definition, or some power is looking over us.

Angels, by my definition, are not with us long.  They live such a large life, and affect so many people that things happen to take them away from us.  As his only great-uncle, I can add some perspective.  Alex had a fatal flaw in his personality, and it could be said that he could not have been an angel without it.  He had to seek greater and greater thrills.

As he went down the local suicide run, he had to be "The King".  Had he successfully negotiated the boulders this time, he would have done it again, perhaps a little faster.  He was not one to be deterred by a close call.  In the end, the miracle was that all his companions walked away from it.  From what I saw at the funeral, all the thrill-seeking may have been knocked out of all the students at Algonquin College.  If so, he has saved many lives.

In this new age of gloom, such as Trump leading us into World War 3, or baking by global warming, it is good to have faith to stop yourself from sinking into depression.  We are saved from the former by corruption, and the latter by physics.   And also angels.

Alex, you came, you saw, you conquered.  And by doing so, you have saved us all.

Harold Asmis

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Massive Petropoints Hack

You recall that all my Petropoints got sucked out of my account.  They relayed to 'hasmis@proton.com' in Malaysia and then got a $25 Bay web gift certificate.

I thought they hacked somewhere and got my low-level default password.  But no, further snooping by this reporter reveals that there has been a 'main system' hack.  Apparently, very suspicious people have been walking around trying to redeem points at the local places.  They just have a display on their phones and have something like 3 million points.

Petrocanada wants this to be a big secret, so there is no panic.  The guy beside me said he had 250,000 points.  To be fair, I am assuming that everybody is vulnerable, but maybe pigs can fly, and it's only a few people.  Certainly, the support people act like they never heard of it.

The criminals walking around will have a tough time trying to redeem millions of points on potato chips.  Watch out for them, they are desperate!  :)  And check your points.

OMG!  I don't think they offer enough money to hire service people.  blah...

wow, they can't clear my email from the system, corrupted database probably, couldn't happen to more competent people.  /\   (the mountain of sarcasm)

Garden and Fruit Tree Spraying 2017

My supply of the 'good stuff' has now been cut off.  I was using Amazon but Customs has cracked down, and nothing is available.

It's not a great loss.  My spraying on the apples last year was a complete disaster.  I was spraying often with the good stuff and it was no good.  All the apples were destroyed by worms.  It's because nobody can spray any more, and the pests are thick.  So, I am going back to my own organic mix and spraying often.  I'll see if this has a chance.

FishOrganic (chemical) Spray

In half a small spray tank (4 litres) throw in 2 bloops (tablespoon) of Neem Oil, 2 bloops of Tea Tree Oil, 2 bloops of Home Defense spray, and a dab of dish soap. Shake well.

Neem oil is a fungicide, as well as Tea Oil.  Home Defense is pyrethins and you need the soap to mix it all.

It all smells so wonderful.  Right now we have those red bugs everywhere, and this kills them  Spray once a week, or after a heavy rain.  Should make the bugs have a tummy ache.  :)

Monday, April 10, 2017

Someone with brains is slowly putting in accelerometers in Oklahoma and Kansas

The latest Medford m4.1 had a lot of recordings.  This is the latest one.



This reads 3 cm/s PGV with an Intensity of 4.  I was quite impressed with all the instruments surrounding this earthquake.  If they have a notion to do it, they can now determine directivity, and correlate Intensity with PGV.  They won't though.

I would now like Mr. Mysterious to instrument buildings in Tulsa and OK City.  We must show that all existing engineering assumptions are wrong.  :)


The fun of sewer work

For a long time, I was tracking this project.  They hit quicksand, and counted on pumping to clog up the pores.  Six months later, they have finally reached the sewer.


Their idea is to open the sewer and jack out the old liner with a new one.  But now it appears that the main structure of the old sewer (bricks) is collapsing and jamming the old lining.  They'll never be able to jack in a new one, and they have all those lovely liner pieces hanging around.  The active sewer is now totally open and I died when I walked into the slip stream.  I can imagine bicycle guys zooming along and falling over.  I thought they'd put a tent on and filter through tree roots.  Silly me.  :)  Not going down there now.

Saturday, April 8, 2017

Russians Hack Google



It's a slow news day in Canada, so it is easy to slip in something that is totally fake.  And Google has no means to flag fake news.



I just did 2 screen grabs in case the stuff all disappears in a minute.  This reads so fake, that trumpy himself could have written it.  It's from a place that nobody heard of, and a very impressive web page.

We should thank his trumpiness that he's got poutine pulling out all the stops of his command over the Internet.  Put in a couple of billion dollars, and you've got something.

It still seems to be up.

To sum:  Poutine is a nice guy who destroyed all assady's chemical toys.  Nevermind all the other incidents.  They were all misunderstandings.  They informed everybody by registered mail that they were going to bomb a weapons bunker.  Pouty was shocked, shocked to find it was full of chemical weapons and the smoke got in their eyes.

ps.  This all gone now.  Not a trace.  It never happened.

pps.  Make a copy of this now, before it also goes poof.

ppps.  I'm getting paranoid.  My next headline, which will never appear.  will be "Google and Russia Attack the Fish".  Bye everybody.

epilogue - I'm still alive!  This has blown over.  Mr. Gootin has gone on to other things.

Petropoints account hacked

My email was changed to some Russian account.  But they notified my normal email account.  Petropoints are absolutely terrible at fixing this.  I had to phone and got cut off, with no hope of getting back.  This was one of my many accounts with my default password which is somewhat guessable, with a lot of effort, or an even older account was hacked.

In the past months I have changed all my accounts to something random from a local Java random password generator, and used Google Smart Lock.  I recommend this to everyone.  However, there are still accounts floating around that I hardly ever use.  It would suck to lose all my petro-money, probably about $30.

You must assume that lost accounts have been hacked because nobody defends them any more.  Change your passwords!

ps.  they changed my email to 'proton.com'.  I suppose they have to go through an effort to get my points.  I informed the owner of that service in Malaysia to remove the offending account (they are probably majorly hacked).  I don't expect a good response.  :)

pps.  confirmed that they took out $25 by using The Bay.  Wow, they used a number of companies.

Friday, April 7, 2017

Kansas tries the Arkansas trick


This is the first new injection zone in a year or two.  First we had Ohio, and they stopped at m4.  Then we had Arkansas.  Stopped at m4.  Then Texas tried injection freshwater frack waste at a few spots.  Stopped at m4.  Now Kansas is trying it.

Not a word on the news about what they are doing here.  They've gone from m2's to an m4 in record time, perhaps one of the fastest ramp-ups yet.  They should hit an m5 soon, maybe even skip right to an m6.  This is so exciting!

ps.  the expected result will be the same as Azle, Tx.  The earthquakes will get bigger and bigger.  The people will complain more and more, and suddenly the earthquakes stop.  They now enter the Texas Conspiracy.  I hope that this time Kansas will be a bit more honest, and someone will whistle.

pps.  This is an extreme close-up of the new injection site.

Note the weird straight E-W line due to location rounding.  In reality, the line is probably extending from the well on the highway down to the SE, just like Azle Texas.  The line will get longer and the earthquakes will get bigger.  This transverse fault joins the megathrust.

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Tragedy for the Family

Reference

Algonquin College student Alex Asmis, 21, dies after rollover


Very sad, he was a grand-nephew.  But it is the way for young people in this modern world.  Everybody has done something like this in their youth.  1000 survive, one doesn't.

Italian Cruise Ship for Sale


Slightly damaged.  Does not do well with an Italian crew.  Giant bandaid on one side.  Available only for the price of a Toronto house.

http://www.yachtworld.com/boats/1997/Cruise-Ship%2C-2417-Passengers--3024096/Italy#.WOZKuHXyuV7


Toronto Housing Listings Still Scrape the Bottom


New figures show that listings are making a feeble rise.  The headline-grabbing average price is meaningless in a thin market.  We had one house sell in the neighbourhood.  It sold right away, and probably for a very high price.

It's a diseased market that can show such high prices and no listings.  If it follows the formula to death, then listings will surge in June because everybody has two houses and they become desperate.  The patient will recover if there is enough money in the market to take these listings.

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Linux - Raspberry pi 3 twice as fast as zero

I always assumed that the raspi's were fast enough to take anything I threw at them.  Wrong!  The p3 can sample 2 accelerometers at 30 samp/sec, and the zero at about 15.  That's probably enough for a velocity seismometer running below 10 Hz.  All the damage comes at 1 to 2 Hz anyway.  So, I envision a bunch of zeros running these.  I have to wait until I can actually buy them.  I've used up my 'one to a customer'.  They still make them in fairlyland Wales, but they use robots.  Speed it up, boys!

Monday, April 3, 2017

El Nino is well and truly dead


Whew!  I wait every month for this chart, and the Toronto real estate figures.  Both are interesting, but this one shows the background microwave chatter for satellites.  It's related to how much heat energy is being thrown out by the Earth, which is a sort of dim infra-red light bulb.

El Nino events make the light bulb go brighter for a while.  That's because a lot of warm water is pushed to the poles.  Just ask Chile!  Then it settles, and we should get colder because all our heat went up the chimney.

Supporting this chart is the fact that all our major northern ocean currents are coming back to full strength.  This El Nino event was huge and did a number on them.  We in Toronto had our driest year, maybe on record.  That's been keeping up some slopes I expected to come down by now.  We're starting to get our big rains now.


Sunday, April 2, 2017

Letter to the Toronto Police

Dear Police,  a few days ago, a big contract-er, whom everybody thought was a contractor, was hit by a contractee, with a single bullet to the head.  That was just around the corner.

You went around the whole neighbourhood asking if anybody had any video.  I am now proposing that you give me an annual grant to run video from the house.  This would be a nifty 'starlight' video on a two day rotating file.  We are getting fiber to the home, and this would be a great use for it, if you want the video directly.

It would be only looked at if there is another contract.  We are full of contracters in big monster houses, and I'm sure there is a potential for more of this.  Maybe again in 20 years.

Now, I'm terrible in dealing with stupid people, who have all the money, so just give me the money and I'll figure things out.  Maybe you actually have a smart person, or maybe you don't, but you can trust me.  :)  I've got a horrible case of never-finishing-things-itis, but I'll make an exception.

Trump inciting violence

Reference



I'm limiting myself to a tiny fraction of my morbid attraction to trumpy news.  Everybody in Canada has this disease right now.  In fact, for the last few days we've been dying because of the lack something truly outrageous.  Or, as addicts, we crave ever greater hits.

So, I dug this up.  This is all about tone and situation.  Did Trump really say "Ok, Klan people, beat the shit out of them and drag their dead bodies out of here."  Or, the defense version of "Please kindly suggest another location for their protest."  I think he can plead insanity.  :)

GET 'EM OUT OF HERE!

ps.  Please note that I am no longer obscuring his name to avoid search engines, since I am no longer afraid of him.  :)  I've done my States trip for the year.

Friday, March 31, 2017

Oklahoma out of the woods

Reference




Whew!  I'm totally wrong!  I wondering when the USGS would come out with something, under the threat of a massive trumpy attack.  All clear in Oklahoma!  The seismic rate isn't going exponentially up.  It's going down.  I think it's safe to build giant brick buildings again.  I'll never mention this place again.

ps. In celebration of this announcement, the OK earthquakes have completely stopped dead.  Not a tingle.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

A Magnitude 7 in King Trumpy's Court

Now that Oklahoma is starting to fire up at rate which will give us M7's by the end of the year, we must discuss what this really means.

Damage on the ground from earthquakes is directly related to peak ground velocity (PGV).  All engineers say it is peak ground acceleration (PGA), but that's only for deep California soil basins.  The pgv is directly related to the applied shear stress at the base of building.  Some of you might know the MM intensity rating, and a doubling of pgv goes up one intensity unit.

The neat thing about earthquakes is that the seismic energy released goes up about 30 times with each magnitude notch.  A 5 is nothing like a 6, and a 6 is nothing like a 7.  OK has 6's going off and they only destroy one town.  A 7 can destroy the whole state.  Yet the 'distance' between magnitudes is all the same, for example 10 5's for a 6, and 10 6's for a 7.

We have the fine example of the New Madrid earthquake sequence, and OK follows the same mechanism.  The pgv on soft soil will be 100 cm/s.  Nothing built in the central US can stand with that, no bridges, hospitals, etc.  No power transformers.  The entire Mid-west will be a ghost town, but with no buildings standing.

If we are lucky, we won't go directly to m7's but have an m6.5 instead which will scare everybody with only a few people killed.  This should be about 50 cm/s on the velometer.  However, even with the injection stopped, it is on the verge of a 7.

Why the huge exponential increase in seismic rate?  It's simple physics.  Texas has shown you can inject all the deep oil water you want, but add a truckload of freshwater frack waste, and you get Azle.  They stopped that and hushed everything up.  Then they sent all stuff to OK.  But OK was 95% deep water, and 5% fresh.  Cutting down the injection volumes has tipped that the other way, because people pay a lot more to get rid of the nasty stuff.

This increase in seismic rate is just coming from the big Texas Permian play.  Soon the northern frack waste will come.  OK injection will become 95% fresh water.  Cut the volumes all you want, and nothing happens.

The amazing thing is that this has merged into one mechanism, and the strain field now includes New Madrid. If you live far away, as I do, you can look on it with scientific detachment.

Trumpyland Earthquakes starting to go nuts now



Since this is a deep normal earthquake, it may be a 5, but no seismometers called it that.  Only Intensity 4, so my velometer would have recorded 1 cm/s.  However, it was very widely felt, again close to an m5 felt area.

Getting these twice a week has brought up the seismic energy rate a notch.  The m7 is looking closer.  The last m5 did not bring out any inane comments, maybe this one will.

Addition - Velometer reading 5 cm/s means chimney down, 10 cm/s - old downtown down, 20 cm/s drywall repair, 50 cm/s walk away from house.  The m7 will read 100 - 200 cm/s, things thrown in the air.

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

The 'mazing new Velometer

I've done it!  I have invented the 'mazing velometer.  The first ever to use a Raspberry Pi Zero W, to sum up two accelerometers, and produce velocities on the fly.


This is serious instrumentation for under $20.  Similar equipment costs thousands.  I'll make a zillion dollars!

Smart people will want to put these all over their buildings so that the next time there is an earthquake, they'll know right away whether it is safe.

What's this you say?  That my 'mazing invention will gather dust alongside the perpetual motion machine, and the car that runs on water?  That there are powerful interests who will squash this because they live on shake machines and peak acceleration?  That they love to party when there is an earthquake, putting red tags on buildings that don't need them, and green tags on those that do?  That there are no smart people in the earthquake biz?

Oh well, perhaps it is best that I retire, and just snipe on the sidelines.  There will soon be a big party in the US midwest without a speck of instrumentation, and lots of people want it that way.




Sunday, March 26, 2017

Trumpy Oklahoma earthquake season really starts



An 'official' m4 that I'm calling an m5 because of severe directivity.  That is, the seismometers in the direction of the strike-slip pulse recorded it as a 5.  I'm always going with this higher number because that is what will count when there are big ones.  For example, an m6 can take down buildings that are in the pulse zone, whereas something much bigger is required to take down buildings out of the pulse.  A pulse is easily a factor of 2 or 4 with the PGV.


At this new rate, we should be getting an m5 once a week.  That means at least two to three m6's for the season.  An m7 might still take another season or two.  It will hilarious to see trumpy and wife coming to the scene of devastation and looking sympathetic.  He'll say "I'm the president, and you're not."  :)

ps.  I am expecting a big increase with the seismic energy rate due to the big Texas play.  Normally, just the NE gas frack waste has been coming in.  Although OK has been limiting injection volumes, they are merely pricing out the local sludge, and injecting more high-grade.

Friday, March 24, 2017

Freedom of Speech in Quebec

Reference

I just have to give this guy some support, since it is Canadian politics, and not trumpyism, which is what everybody, on the dog walk, talks about.

This is nothing new.  Every time some physicist says "There's no physics in global warming.", some gorey type wants him fired.  So, when this professor bites the nanny-state hand that feeds him at McGill, he has to resign.

I'm not going on and on about Quebec.  They can do any silly thing they want as long as they threaten the feds, to squeeze money out of them.  I'm just saying that there is an economic effect of political suppression.  Soon, bright people won't want to say anything, and then they just want to leave.  Even fed money can't stop the decline.  I know that if the nutters in Quebec actually read English, then I wouldn't say that I agree with this guy 100%.  It the same thing, that the warming nutters never read anything to do with physics, so I can rant all I want to.  :)


Thursday, March 23, 2017

Linux - fun with the Raspberry Pi Zero W - setup

You need to buy a starter kit from Canatech, or whatever.  The kit has the good charger, a micro to regular usb converter, and a micro to regular hdmi adapter.  They also include a micro sd card with the operating system right on it.  I borked that right away, and loaded a new raspberrian system.

The raspi foundation is desperate for money, and loads a huge amount of bloatware on the system.  Good for an r3 but not so good for the zero.  But you have to use the full system for the rzw, because you need to set up the wifi and that's miserable from the command line.

So, fire it up while connected to your hdmi monitor, and usb keyboard-mouse.  Works great.  Immediately attack the bloatware with their software removal tool.  Kill wolfram and real-vnc.  These are horribly complicated and screw everything up.  They pay big bucks to put this on as an introduction.

Use raspi-config to activate ssh and i2c.  Set up the wifi.  Now you can get your big computer back.  Just keep the rzw plugged in and you can ssh in.  Install tightvncserver, and xfonts-base.  Fire up vncserver, and you get a full screen.  Great!  The thing is a 'dancing bear', slow but amazing that it works!

Now I have to solder on the i2c pins.  I intend to get at least 2 accelerometers on it.  Subsequent rzw's should cost less because you just need the naked boards, and I have a million micro usb chargers.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Leaving the Scientific Method

Reference

Dana writes a very nice article on what happens when a pure rationalist enters the world of fanaticism.


He didn't have a chance.  That's the thing about the Scientific Method, you either stick with it or you don't.  Nothing inbetween.  You can't use it as a club to disprove nonsense, because the public can't tell the difference.  All you can say is that it is not SM and therefore outside the realm of Science.

However, there are always people such as warmists who define Science as outside the SM.  Their audience is the public, and they win an argument every time.  Stay away from these people!


Monday, March 20, 2017

Linux - The New Raspberry Pi Zero W


Yahoo!  The fact that I, a mere mortal, could buy this at a reasonable price in snowy Canada, means they have given up on the fairy people in Wales, and are getting it made in Taiwan.  Soon, we might be able to get them in bulk.

I'm still finishing up with the big raspi3, but I hope this can handle a few accelerometers and stream corrected data to a recording computer.  That would be great!  These are really meant for embedding into things, you experiment with the raspi3.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

New Madrid Earthquake 2


It'll be a good movie.  The Rock can fly all over the Big Valley and look at all the destroyed buildings.  The big joke will be that the movie will be filmed in Oklahoma which will have the earthquakes first.  After the movie comes out, then it will happen at the original location.

We've had 2 sizeable earthquakes at the tip of the old zone.  With my 'Stress Corrosion' hypothesis, the main zone is tapped out, and will never blow again.  However, there is no obstacle to paddling up the river and expand the zone.  Then you get into new stress.

The OK zone is helping things along.  The Precambrian basement is so strong that it could keep a static stress hole forever, but OK is shifting the stresses.  Thus, we can either start a new zone from scratch, or just thump a bigger earthquake with a larger stress region.

With a wild guess, I think OK can knock off some high seven's, just like the original New Madrid.  Then NM can respond with some mid-8's.  Of course, then the surrounding similar mechanisms, like Toronto can join in.  Even with all that, I still don't think anybody will pay me money.  :(


LInux - making a seismometer

I believe that my 6 accelerometers now have the sensitivity of seismometers that I have worked with.  All you really want is accuracy at some fraction of the background noise, perhaps a factor of 5.  I am pleasantly surprised at the power of a Raspberry 3.  It has handled everything I've thrown at it.

My next step will be to plot an accurate velocity graph.  For that I need to maintain a moving average before integration.  Otherwise the velocity tends to drift.  I'm going to be using the mathematics library 'numpy' for that.  Then I'm going to stream out the results to the main computer.  I hope the raspi3 can handle all that.

In the future, I'll have a bunch of raspi zeroes, each with 2 or 4 accelerometers.  There should be enough power to pre-process the accelerations to velocities.  The raw accelerations are very spiky and mostly meaningless.  Integrating to velocity brings us within the realm of physics.  Those poor engineers who stick with accelerations are sad.  :)

It is my wish that everybody sticks one of these on their buildings.  But it won't happen, because no trumpy will ever admit that nobody wiretapped the building.  :(

ps.  signal to noise is very important.  For the seismometer network, we had very expensive seismometers and had a hard time finding places where the noise was low enough.  But these seismometers had the best dynamic range for strong ground motion.  I think my new seismometers would work just as well, and if not, just add more accelerometers.  :)  This is like a factor of 1000 cheaper.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

California cripple wall upgrade

Reference


This is a typical California cripple wall upgrade.  It is for a 1906 single story house on a slab.  The crawl space was built to allow services.  Just look at that original electrical wire!  I hope it was abandoned and real electricity put in, just like my old 1900 house.  I left in the wires because they looked cute, just like gas lamp pipe.  :)


What happens with these houses is that at a certain range of PGV, the cripple wall jumps off the foundation, or suffers shearing damage.  The destroys the whole house.  With the upgrade, this house should survive up to 50 cm/s before the shear damage in the rest of the house pulls all the nails.  These houses have no shear resistance that you get with good frame sheeting.

The big goof is that this sort of upgrade is being sold to BC house owners of 2 story brick homes with a basement.  It does nothing.


Friday, March 17, 2017

Rebuilding Cushing Oklahoma

Reference


Ok, so Mr. Big takes a billion from the busgus, and tells me to make Cushing alive again.  New Orleans would be easier, but nobody voted for him there.  Cushing has the problem that it must withstand a near-field m8, multiple times.  That's 1-2 m/s on soft soil.  At those levels, cars will be flipped over, and buildings will jump up a foot off the ground, before smashing back.

This is nothing to what an ocean ship goes through, so how can we make Cushing a model town to survive earthquakes.  Think of the tourism after the 8's when everybody is on their porches, sipping coffee.  You can easily build something ugly, but how do you preserve a historic feel?

Obviously, ugly buildings like this one must be torn down.  The only thing to preserve is the bricks if they are pretty.  You build like a ship, but we will make precast panels with the bricks embedded in them.  All buildings will be stiff steel or concrete, on deep piles.  This way, all the pretty glass will stay intact.

The cute buildings will have basements, and all services come through tunnels on piles.  Every year they will have a big earthquake festival, and install fiber to the home, so they attract the Palo Alto set.  The roofing will be steel for tornados, 200 mph grade.  With trumpievouchers, the new people won't have to suffer with the local bibbly education system.  :)

The interiors will all have to be ship-shape, with everything secured.  We need carbon fiber drywall.  :)

ps.  As usual, this post was 'educational', in that it is impossible to 'upgrade' a historic city centre to take this type of ground motion.  You have to create one from scratch and that's way too expensive.  The best you can do is like Christchurch - pretend that the brick buildings that stood are good, put in 'upgrades', and fool everybody into thinking that it's good to go.

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Linux - Six accelerometers together



This uses the ltc4317 to add 4 more accelerometers.  I'm getting a Raspberry Zero W, (with wifi).  When they are finally shipped in bulk, they'll be cheaper to just hook up 2 accelerometers.  Then you can have a big array on a concrete slab.  This will be an extremely sensitive seismometer with the advantage of having a spaced array.  I like to have a huge dynamic range, and multiple uses.  When put in a bridge, you can get great diagnostics.  All those stupid 'energy absorber' buildings should have this.

There is now no excuse not to monitor every structure.  Had New Zealand done this, they could have saved billions.  A structure which does not change any response is not damaged.

In the US, the big OK earthquakes will cost endless billions, and none of the buildings will be reoccupied.  Who would trust the stupid engineers, with more earthquakes coming?  People will just leave, like nobody trusts the dykes of New Orleans.  They'll come to Toronto - Ha ha!  Where the Earthquake IQ is underwater.  :)

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Warm weather brings Oklahoma earthquakes back

There is an almost perfect correlation between OK seismic energy and freezing temperatures.  A cold spell cuts off the earthquakes, and now, the warm turns them on again.



I was quite surprised by the large New Madrid earthquake.  Called an m3.6, it is really an m5, quite deep.  That's at the tip of the shear section, so the fault is extending.  The Oklahoma strain field is tickling the tiger's tail.  I was surprised, because I've been expecting an m5 in OK, there have been enough m4's.  Anyway, the warm weather should bring us more action.

You won't hear anything about this from anybody.  They are all terrified of Mr. Big.

Linux - getting the LTC4317 to work

The LTC4317 is an amazing chip, in that it simply translates I2C addresses so you can cram more things like accelerometers on a single i2c bus for the Raspberry Pi3, or whatever.  This was a horrible complex setup, that I got working 6 months ago, and it took me another day recently to remember what I did.  That is why I am outlining it on my blog.  There was no help available when I searched.

The chip itself is a teeny-weeny thing, meant for surface mounting, and an amateur like me can't handle it.  The specs are here.

So, you go for a breakout board.    This is a fairly new chip, so the board is expensive.  It turns out that this board was made for a particular purpose, and has everything set up for a particular address shift.





Just figuring that out nearly kills you, but it turns out to be great.  The chip has a complex means to shift addresses involving split resistors of 1% tolerance.  You could never easily get these things, but the board does it for you.  So, the first bus adds a little bit and the second adds more.  That means I can get an additional 4 adxl345's to the original 12c bus.  There are bus multiplexers, but that's more programming.

Zero documentation doesn't tell you that the enable leads have to be put high, or the output needs pullup resistors.  You get some of that from the original specs, but it's all a mess.

I got it to work, again.  There's something weird with the output pullups, they have to be between two leads.  But maybe that's superstition.


Note that en1 and en2 need to be high.  I also had a lot of trouble with the current injectors for the output scl and sda.  Whew!

I'm going with adxl345's because they work simply with smbbus, and you cannot mix bit-banging with these.  These are failed breakout boards that I got cheap.  You have to knock out r4 to get a second address.  You can get these by the bucket-load directly from China.


Friday, March 10, 2017

More Earthquake Shake Table Goodness

Reference


We've now shown that base isolation is garbage, but people still love 'soft, flexible' energy absorbers.  This all comes from shake table non-physics.  I'm not a denier of this belief, but once again I say there is no physics.

As with base isolation, the hope is that a little bit of memory metal will take up all the energy, and the bridge will be good to go.  At least I hope they instrument it.  As with New Zealand, they put so much money in this, that they cheap out on the foundation, and instrumentation.  So, although we see it fail, we don't really know why.

The failures will just have to keep piling up until we can laugh at the engineers.  However, that will be a heck of a pile if they don't instrument anything.

**note** for future generations.  Seismic engineers scale everything by peak acceleration, and that's how they run their shake tables.  PGA doesn't vary from site to site, rock to soil.  A 0.3 g earthquake is that everywhere.  So if they can make a structure that goes from 0.3 g to 0.6 g, it's a great thing.  Unfortunately, this has no physics.  Damage scales with imposed shear strain, which is indicated by peak ground velocity, PGV.  And that varies by a factor 10 to 100, site to site, earthquake to earthquake of the same magnitude.  All this fancy stuff only gives you a factor of 2 in PGV, and that's buried in the noise, totally worthless.

Trudeau gets Oklahoma earthquakes all excited

Reference



All the Texas excitement has got the OK earthquakes going at a last summer's high rate of 1 m4 per day.  This is fan-bloody-tastic for earthquake watchers.  Normally we have never got this rate until April or May, when the natgas frack water comes in.  I assume that barrels of Texas water are coming, since they know to never inject that stuff in Texas (remember Azle?).  Any investment in oil sands will return a factor of 10 in a year or two when the m8's come a-calling.

The m5's seem a bit tardy, give it another week or two.

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Toronto Housing starting the bust

Reference


Reading this article you'd think that the Toronto housing bubble still has legs, but all the hot money has been sucked out of the system.  There are a few 'desperate' people going after very few listings, so it looks really good.  But the question to ask is why are there no listings, when people could get 20% more than a month ago?

It's a vicious circle.  In the past year or two all the frenzy has been driven by upgrading, with hot money being the blower on the forge.  If you want to upgrade now, you'd have to crazy outbid others and then assume you could sell your house for a huge amount over asking.  You'd need financing for this, the formal calculated spread is huge, and perhaps you wouldn't qualify.  So people are sitting tight.

Speculators are seeing the price rise and holding onto their empty houses and condos.  This is a time of great uncertainty, and it doesn't help that people like me are calling 'crash'.  (as if anybody reads me)

Anyway, it always like this before a crash.  Everything goes into paralysis for 6 months.  Then it is dependent on 'desperate sellers'.  Obviously, if you are strung out with a new house waiting, it is time to sell and then rent for a while, or take a long closing.  Obviously, you won't do this, because the prices are zooming and you wish to wait to the last minute.  Read the article and you'll be comforted, since there is nothing about a crash in it.  It is just assumed all the foreign buyers went to Toronto because of a 15% tax when they were all looking at doubling their money.  That is an assumption with no physics (or hard data), and we all know how people really like that stuff.  :)  It's more likely that they all fled Canada.

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Canadian companies are now nursing homes

I've heard through various sources that the 'old person' problem is getting worse.  In dysfunctional bureaucracies, people are going past 70, even if they don't really work any more.  To get rid of them, you must 'show cause' and give a huge severance for years of service.  Naturally, this can't be done, since nobody really works in those places, and anything you do will be 'age discrimination'.

I retired early, but I can understand some people who have blown all their money and have nothing else to do.  Still, politically, and to make room for young people, they should start chopping severance every year after 65.

I can't wait to hear stories of the 'World's oldest employee'.  They should get to be a hundred, at least.  There will be a statement from the company saying that Stan has been a fine programmer.  Really, what else could they do?

Monday, March 6, 2017

The Boring Doom of Musk!

So, musky wants to start tunnelling without a speck of geotechnical engineering.  He's got the hats already, so he's off to a flying start!


I really like the solid 'O'.  It's great.  It's funny that I rail on about how seismic engineers don't know what they are doing, and here I am, complaining about the new guy, just because I've been doing it a few years.  Let him go ahead, I say, who needs physics anyway?

I hope his first hole isn't like this one.  They started digging a simple 20 foot pit 6 months ago, and are still at it.  They just move dirt from one spot to another, every day.  John Tory is paying for this, and if he doesn't get upset, why should we?  They're having fun.  Perhaps this is what musky wants to do.


The lack of physics in everyday life

Reference

The BBC no less!  They should know better, dingbats.  This is where I have fun with my vanity blog, nobody else has to read it.

So, if you have spent hours looking for one piece of fake news, just like a phoney correlation, then it becomes simple to ask a formulated question to dig up that piece again.  Since it is so bizarre and obscure, nobody has written a rebuttal to it.  Google only finds that piece of 'fake news'.

Although this is a one in a million thing, you can then report it as 'Google spreads fake news', even though nobody has ever heard of it.  It's like correlating co2 with temperature, or Obama installing wiretaps on his own, dressed in a janitor's outfit.  The big weakness of the Scientific Method is that you cannot refute nonsense.  You can only say it doesn't follow the SM, and that is a meaningless statement these days.

The Big Media is dying.  They grab onto fake news, and 'click bait' to stay alive for a few more days.  Once they leave us, I can't see we'll be any worse off.  :(


Saturday, March 4, 2017

Toronto housing sales give mixed signals

The hypothesis was that Toronto was following Vancouver due to the withdrawal of hot money.  The latest chart shows some blips that putting cracks in the hypothesis.  However, the listings are still way down, and that is a strong indicator.


The very thin listings make the price blips somewhat questionable.  I'm still sticking with the hypothesis of a crash.  We'll wait for March.

ps.  if you combine volume with price you'll see that there has been a tremendous amount of money withdrawn from the market in the past year.  That's the 'smart money'.  Dummies are left to pick up the pieces.

Friday, March 3, 2017

Base Isolation as useless as I always said it was

Reference


I remember when base isolation was a big thing.  I said "Blah, you don't know the physics.', or something like that.  BI was another corruption from 'Shake Table Garbage'.  At that time, the path to engineering glory was to build a bigger shake table, perhaps it still is.

Base isolation and crapping around with shake tables only ever gave you a factor of two, in terms of PGV.  Locating on soft soil was over a factor of 10.  All of this destruction comes from a devotion to peak acceleration rather than PGV.  I would have liked to see the velocities when this thing jumped the rails.

Believe it or not, no engineer learns from this because it didn't happen in California.  Also, you will have to take the shake tables out of their cold dead hands.  The experience in Chile didn't change things, and this won't either.  Look for more spectacular failures of engineered structures when the PGV exceeds 40 cm/s.

No structure should lose it's functionality with 20-40 cm/s PGV.  I think structures should go up to 80 cm/s, but people will regard this as a building code success, since it didn't pancake.  Blah.


Thursday, March 2, 2017

Slamming El Ninos Melt the Arctic

The El Nino disrupts existing ocean currents and shifts a lot of heat to the Arctic.  That heat is all dumped into space, but on the way it melts the Arctic ice.


Here we have the Arctic ice volume the lowest ever.  If you just like to extrapolate a straight line, with no physics, then you can safely predict massive gloom and doom.  The entire Arctic will ice-free soon and the oceans will boil.  We Canadians will have beautiful weather, but be boiled slowly like a frog.

I, personally, would like that death, by hot and beautiful summers, but it won't happen.  There is only so much heat energy in the world, and that is bleeding out like a stuck pig.  We will pay. :)

Rising to a second El Nino



Yeah, to another hot summer!  Boo, to more warmist gloating.  As I've said before, we are not getting any normalization in the big ocean currents.  The Pacific is looking at another backwash event.

Sooner or later we will suffer very cold temperatures.  But not yet.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Blowing your money on a sailing trip

For 6 of us, it cost half a new roof.  We wanted to get all the kids together for a possibly last time.  Any farther down the road, and there will a lot more to go, since the younger two are still single.

It was a great trip.  We chartered a 55 foot catamaran with a married couple as crew.  They did everything for us, food and drinks were all-inclusive, and it included several scuba dives for the certified ones.  She was a master chef and he was winning bar and dive-master.

I'm still recovering.  :)  It took 2 days to get your sea legs on very calm water, and another two days when you came back, to stop the floor from swaying.  I snorkelled on a lot of reefs and saw many pretty fish.



We'd love to do it again, but we have to build up the war-chest.  :)

Friday, February 17, 2017

The Annual Oklahoma Earthquake Predictions

These are not really predictions, in the sense that they have to be useful.  This is just an extrapolation based on the main hypothesis, and incorporating all known physics.  The hypothesis can be invalidated by a variation of the prediction, keeping in mind the uncertainties are huge.

Hypothesis:  OK earthquakes are caused by the injection of freshwater frack waste into the highly stressed Precambrian basement, which is riddled by major megathrust structures which can be mapped in Canada.

Extrapolation:  This is the big trumpy year.  We expect a huge increase in demand for frack waste disposal.  On the other side, the supply (available injection) is being restricted due to an assumption that mere pressure is causing earthquakes.  As with the 'war on drugs', the price of injection will go up.  We estimate that we can expect a doubling or tripling, from 30 cents a barrel to over $1.  As such, the lower grade 'produced water' will be priced out of the market, and they will shooting pure freshwater frack waste.

 We are noticing now that the seismic rate is going up to one m4 per week.  A rough idea of the total seismic energy rate is to just keep track of the larger earthquakes.  Forget about the m3's.  The 'powers' like to plot 3's as 'proof' the number of earthquakes are going down.  Every year, the seismic rate has been very low during the winter because they can't deal with fresh water when it freezes.  Last year, things didn't start moving until May, because of the very cold April.

We now expect March-April to have a rate of a 4 every other day, giving a rate of one 5 per month.  Please note that we do not use the busgus magnitudes because of severe directivity.  We generally go with the largest rating by seismometers around the world.

The summer will see one 5 a week.  This should give us a few 6's over the season.  We maintain good odds of a 7 this year with 8's next year.  We are very uncertain about the 'multiple' factor for these larger earthquakes.  Right now we seem to have a factor of 5, that is 5 m4's for an m5, etc.  Who knows about the m6's?

All in all, an exciting earthquake season.  Politically, we expect no voice from the busgus (defunded), or the EPA (purged).

Thursday, February 16, 2017

A new continent - Zealandia

Reference



I always follow good stuff in plate tectonics, and this is the best.  Of course, you've always could have seen it since the beginning of Time, in Google Earth.  :)


But this is all semantics.  The paper now says it should be a continent rather than pieces of rock.  And that's big news!  Like planet being demoted to planetoid and back again, and back again.

But trumpies can't build a hotel on it with Russian money.  It needs to dry out a bit.  Perhaps a new Ice Age might exposed prime property.  But it is interesting to note that this is what happens to any continent who loses its heat engine.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

A Finite Amount of Water Vapour - Part 3


If we use the 'fairy tale' method of Philosophy Science, we can say that the Earth has always (last billion years or so) had the same ratio of land to ocean.  If we look at hard physics, we can see a reason, which was outlined in my series on Earth heat radiation.

In a nutshell, since my articles are impossible to find, the Earth has struggled mightily to shed heat to outer space, not just the solar influx.



It's still doing it now.  So if the Trumpy Magical Galactic Emperor ordered more continental mass (because someone on Earth insulted him), or to kill everyone by drying up the Earth, he couldn't do it.  He would be Balanced.  The Earth has to shed heat, and it does it through the ocean basins, and circulation of ocean water, which is our big CHU (central heat unit) water cooler.

If you create more continent, you are insulating the chu. Can't happen.

However, His Royal Trumpiness could invoke magic and move the continents around.  Depending on his mood, he could create a Snowball Earth, or the Return of the Dinosaurs.  If he chose Snowball, then would evenly separate the continents for maximum Heat Radiation Efficiency.  If he wanted Dinosaurs to stomp us, then he would jam all the continents together.

So, with continents jammed together, we have the Mesozoic, and we get back to the title.  Remember those oceans of water?  They all come back because the continents are a giant thermal blanket, and the heat builds up.  This bakes the crust and gives us a huge amount of water vapour.  That thin band of clouds which we have now, becomes a huge band covering the earth.  Constant rain, and global warming (the real kind).  We large mammals can't survive, because it's too stinking hot!  Dinosaurs eat us.

The End.

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

A Finite Amount of Water Vapour - Part 2



The classic picture is missing subduction, which takes away an enormous amount of water, and stashes it away like a chipmunk.  In fact, the total amount of water put away may exceed our existing water, but the uncertainties are huge.  Now, my bright SK grand-nephew, who appreciates physics more than any gormist, would ask:  'Given the chaotic nature of geology, wouldn't there be geological epochs where all the surface water gets sucked up, and all life ceases?'  (He wouldn't really say that, he'd say 'I like robots!'.  :)

In fact, Tyler, I write all these things for you.  After this era of mass stupidity ends, you will have to go back to the Scientific Method, to pick up all the pieces.  I blame the Internet and email.  :)

Yes, Tyler, just looking at energies involved, we could say that all the water could get sucked up, and stored underground, like Mars.  But it has never happened and never will.  There's some marvellous physics involved.

-to be continued, I'm getting tired, and future generations can't give me any encouragement, although Tyler thinks I'm a god.  :)

AW SNAP!  Applying physics to climate has activated my depression.  No more posts of any sort for a while.

I'm okay again.  :)

A Finite Amount of Water Vapour - Part 1

What is the acknowledged El Supremo greenhouse gas?  Water vapour.  But it doesn't act as a sheet of glass, stopping convection, it has wild convection.  It acts an insulator for the Earth's heat.  Without water, we'd be a dry dusty desert, horribly hot during the day, and perhaps -40 at night.


That's what saves us.  The ocean desperately tries to shed heat to outer space, but it can't do so without a lot of water vapour.  This condenses as rain, and falls back down.  The heat capacity (specific heat) of water is 4,000 times that of air (by volume).  There is a little heat shed above the clouds, but not much, as witnessed by smooth flights over regular rain clouds.

It's amazing that if condensing clouds were all over the world, we'd be in the Jurassic.  But we have limited water vapour.


The heavy colours are condensing clouds.  Only a thin band at the equator. All the water for us living at the extremes comes from air plumes branching off from this band.  The warm water of the ocean is always trying to pump out more vapour, but the darn stuff keeps coming back.  There has to be a way to get more vapour out and cover the Earth.


This is the classic water cycle.  It's the boring story I told all the kids to get them to sleep at the cottage.  They still talk about it!  But this picture is missing a huge amount of water.  Those new to boring stories might not know, but you'll have to wait for the next episode.

-to be continued

Arctic Ice Volume Goes Low


Ding, dong the Arctic ice is dead!

I've been watching the Gulf Stream for the past few months.  The main equatorial feed has been cut off, and it is cast adrift in the Atlantic.  Tell Europe about it!  They are freezing.  However, this has been causing the hot air plumes to flood the Arctic.


The weather in Toronto has been dominated by the weak North Pacific current, and we are getting weather from the straight west.  Gone are our prevailing NW winds.  The pine trees up north will have to rotate.


Rotate away from the West!

We get our ice ages when the NS ocean currents completely fail.  But not to fear, we are still in an Interglacial, and it should get warmer.  Nothing to do with carbon.

In the short term, however, we should be getting a cold decade.  The recent monster El Nino shoved a lot of heat off the Earth, and we Canadians will suffer for it, eventually.  But not this day!