Monday, October 24, 2016

The Atlantic El Nino


It's proper name is The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.  If you properly massage the data, it looks like this.

This graph implies that poor old hopeless Europe is about to enter a cold period, like that 70's show.  However, as with all the wiggle-watcher products, this comes after you remove the general ocean warming.

So far, as with gorming, you don't have any physics here.  They take the Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST), and subtract the Global SST, which you can see is quite heavy on the warm side, and come up with their signal.  This is all binomial chaotic oscillation and when you see a 'regular' up and down oscillation, you know that a big excursion, about 3 times the average, can come zooming in.  We've had this warm (gorming), and may now have it cold.

Lucky for all of us, I can see some physics in these oscillations.  That comes comes from a recent product that shows us the current ocean currents.  :)

This is the map that showed us the monster El Nino that missed California, which relies on a regular 7 year cycle.  But binomial theorem hit them square in the Sponge Bob pants.  Now for the Atlantic.  A good Gulf Stream relies on the equatorial current sliding up that perfect ramp of South America and filling the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico with hot water.  That is not happening now, the current is doubling back on itself and forming a small circle.  The Gulf Stream is still hobbling along on residual warmth, but is now doing funny things.

This might not bother pathetic Europe (I'm Canadian!) very much.  At best, they might get some relief from gorming.  At worst, it gives them bad weather and all the cows in Stupid Wallonia freeze.  Looks like the cold could travel the Earth and give us a 70's decade when I use to go winter camping at 40 below.    Who knows, because the North Pacific Current is also dead.  If everything acts together as binomial theorem predicts, we could get a mini-ice age, but I'm not hoping for that, even though that would end The Myth of Gorming, and maybe usher in a new era of physics.  However, I would end up gloating with an icicle hanging from my nose.  :)


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