This is a screen shot of the ocean currents. El Nino is fighting the prevailing currents. It could actually die right here, like last time. If it makes it, it will deflect up and down like the second half which shows how the Atlantic current deflects up and saves Great Britain.
None of these currents are tremendously stable over centuries. That's what makes up warm and cold spells. If they go really wild, then we get a mini ice age. I've written what we need for a real ice age, and we got another 5000 years to go. I've also written what this means to crazy globular warming (sic).
Addendum: You can easily see how we get a mini ice age. If the Atlantic current decides to go south more, all the deflection goes to Argentina. The North is frozen out. All this energy is orders of magnitude above cow farts warming us. :)