Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Earthquake storm hits Oklahoma

It now becomes obvious that I am having my predicted M5 thrust, though it is being broken up in tiny pieces.  That is always the option you have when you predict things based on stress.  You don't really know the fractal roughness.  If things were relatively smooth, as in Arkansas, you would have a ping-pong of clean earthquakes between the shear wing and the thrust zone.  Thus, we had an M4.5 shear, and I was expecting an M5 thrust.

It's the same with any zone, like Cascadia.  People have always predicted you can have one clean M9, or a 'Decade of Terror', with M8's going off every few months.  In fact, we now have a book, written by one our foremost earthquake experts, formerly computer commenter, Big John.  BJ doesn't realize you are constrained by energy, so that a storm is always comprised of smaller earthquakes.

I mean, really, what's the difference?  I think OK is happy to have 20 M4'ish earthquakes rather than an M5.  And the west coast might be better off, as well.  Trouble is, for OK, this doesn't stop the escalating sequence, and it means the next time they'll have 20 M5's instead of a 6, and so on.

After this sequence dies down, we should have our M5.5 shear.  This shear zone seems smooth, and they usually are, since they have larger displacement per Mag.  :)  Of course, the thrust zone could always become smoother with time.

Addendum:  It has stopped on Wednesday.  If we don't get 20 M4's, then it is just a flurry.  :)  Don't forget that these high M3's are really M4's, but are high-stress drop near-vertical thrusts.  If a seismometer is right on top, it goes super-high, but distant seismometers are low.  Thus, the constant downgrading.  S-S and thrusts are totally different animals.

Add2:  Azle has completely stopped, since this is now a major election issue.


If they don't mix in the frack waste, there are no earthquakes.  The price has now gone up and OK is making money hand over fist.  :)

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