Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Windows closing on two Fish predictions

Yes, it's that time again, my two open predictions are coming crashing to the ground.  It's as bad as if the world were getting colder!  

First prediction was that Oklahoma would see an M5 thrust earthquake by now.  Every possible signal was blaring:  Earthquake Now!  But, no.

My second was that the M6.4 over Puerto Rico was a foreshock for something much bigger.  That window is now closed, since if anything happened in the future, this would no longer be a foreshock.  That one really talked to me!

A rational person would now abandon the practice of representing uncertainty by a single thin pencil line.  As with all natural phenomena, these things should be represented by a big fat smudge, but where would be the fun in that?  Politicians and movie-goers don't understand smudges!  Billions of dollars would not pour down the drain if we stuck to scientific truth.

As such, I refuse to learn anything from this.  At least my predictions have good physics in them, it's just the timing where I am being silly optimistic.  Really, for an earthquake prediction to satisfy an Italian, you must get it down to one day with zero false alarms.  How many times can these people sleep outdoors, to avoid their seismic death traps?

I can't do any prediction yet for poor Azle.  I was wrong again with my general inclination that the seismic activity was moving on.  As well, I don't understand the physics where you could pour billions of gallons of water into the Precambrian and not get an earthquake.  Could you have neutral water?  Is the zone totally stress relieved by previous unknown events?  I am baffled.  :)

2 comments:

blucrossbreeder said...

I have noticed nature is difficult to accurately forecast. But well done for having the guts to publicly try.

Harold Asmis said...

Ha, it doesn't really take guts to issue my predictions. :)