Monday, January 28, 2013

The Kanamori Doughnut

Super Classic Paper

Ok, in the previous post I alluded to what happens when clusters stop.  I waited for 30 seconds and nobody asked the obvious question.  :(

So, I'll answer it anyway!  The Kanamori Doughnut was a big hit when I graduated.  It basically states that you have a cluster, then it stops, and you have an earthquake in the dead zone.  The paper was so famous that it set off Japan on a ruinous course of gov't-pushed earthquake prediction, ignoring soft soil, tsunamis, or nuclear plants.  They detached themselves from the world.

Seismologists used to be as chatty as +Chris Hadfield on the Internet.  Now, you have to pull teeth to get them to talk.  That's why I don't post any more on the Geoscience Community, since it should be a 'safe place' to bring out shy professionals.  I goad them too much!  In fact, I feel like I do at a party where I talk too much, too loudly, and my wife keeps poking me in the ribs!

So, this doughnut sparked a huge frenzy in earthquake patterns with everybody back-fitting patterns with no physics - sort of like Global Warming.  In the end it all came to tears as none of the patterns ever repeated.  But with all the seismologists withdrawing from the world we are open to new wacky theories! Obviously Alaska and the Caribbean are joined by an earthquake ley line, since, right now, everybody in Alaska wants to be on a sunny beach!

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