Friday, March 18, 2011

Earthquake Nuclear Panic is Over

There are my hits.  I'm going down, and I'm soooo glad!  There was almost a threat that the big guys would have  to pay attention to me and slap me down with their good Japanese methodologies.  Now, the government has thrown out the 'standard fish' of having a review.  That always makes everybody happy -- millions thrown around, the NGO's get money, the newspapers get exclusive access.  Nobody is left out!

Of course, if a speck of that were to be spent on science...  Not to happen!  Now that the panic is squelched by the promise of a lawyer review, I hope that newspaper guy abandons his article.  Really, with no money spent in the last 20 years, and no prospect of any money, why would anybody speak out on earthquakes, other than to issue the standard platitudes that 'it seems like a nice quiet area'.

Willful ignorance in geology will continue to drain billions from Ontario.  You will only find out the true cost of the Niagara Tunnel when they throw on the last bucket of concrete.  We have the Bruce Thing, and new nuclear.  We may have to engage in useless seismic upgrades to the existing plants.  All of this is done blind.  I really prefer to be the crazy guy with a blog that nobody reads...  :)


Harold Asmis said...

Here's my statement to the newspaper, which won't be published now.

In my blog, I generally take an extreme tone, in response to the prevailing attitude of doing no scientific investigations, or any earthquake preparation in this area. Twenty years ago, then Ontario Hydro, embarked on a multi-million dollar program to investigate the deep crustal structure of Ontario, using geophysical methods. I was directing that study, which was structured as a scientific investigation, to be published in journals. This was done in support of new nuclear, and was all suddenly shelved when a new government was elected. This work has not been reactivated with the current interest in new nuclear.

Enough evidence was gathered to support a new seismic model for Ontario. Unfortunately, a major crustal structure daylights under Hamilton. The odds of a major earthquake here are the same as the odds for any past earthquake disaster, about one in 500 per year, or a general repeat of every 500 years. These earthquakes are always devastating because they slip 'under the radar' for planning. Nobody expects them, since they are out of living memory.

At these odds, many cities in eastern North America can expect a major earthquake, yet they do nothing. I am only arguing in my blog that this is not a good thing. There should be more scientific investigation and more earthquake planning, but there is no money for this. Thus, we are doomed to continually oscillate between Willful Ignorance (as in Japan), or Panic, which is our current state. A little more knowledge might allow some middle ground.

Anonymous said...

Too bad it won't!

Peter of the vibratin lines

Christoph said...

Indeed, very sad.
I came across an exciting article:

All the best,


Anonymous said...

How about "Earthquakes and other earth shaking events"

Peter of the shaking lines