Mount Sinabung's first eruption last week caught many scientists off guard. With more than 129 active volcanoes to watch in this vast archipelago, local vulcanologists had failed to monitor the long-quiet mountain for rising magma, slight uplifts in land and other signs of seismic activity.
This exemplifies my conflict with the standard volcanologists, and is what got me kicked out of show business! :)
These guys went into a 'philosophical' branch of science because they can't do math! So, what exactly is happening here? The big question is the 'path to blowout'. Does it continue to get worse? What is it capable of?
It's my general thought that although the mountain itself is swelling, the surrounding region is sinking, as the rock collapses and pushes up the magma. The size of the 'feeder' region would indicate how bad this is going to get. Unfortunately, they will never do a standard SAR, or have surrounding GPS monitors. Their general model implies that everything is swelling.
So, we shall see and be 'surprised' once again!