Sunday, September 13, 2009

Niagara Tunnel - And So it Starts - CAVE INS!


Ok, this is getting a bit too freaky for me. The rock erupted 2 km behind the head, in a zone where there had been overbreak, which must have been just before the sandstone. They call it a 'temporary lining', but I don't see much diff. with the final lining.

The rock squeeze is coming faster than I thought. At first I thought they would get stuck in the bad sections because the Squeeze would get them. But then they miraculously Squeaked through, and just left behind this bizarre tunnel profile.

At that point, counting on the Luck of Fools, I pronounced (in my brain) my Main Chance prediction.

They will get away with their funny lining, and will only notice unusual longitudinal cracking before they fill. They will either paste over the cracks and ignore them, and start the water fill.

After 10 years, they will start to notice the tunnel water flow slowing down, and this will set up as a trend. By 15 years they will finally drain the tunnel, and see severe lining damage, much like every other ill-conceived tunnel in this area.

Now, I must amend this prediction to include:

Before they fill, they will have numerous cave-ins. They will dig these out and paste over them.

Now, my real dilemma in my prediction is guessing where exactly they will have the most trouble. I'm not too sure where in the strata this cave-in occurred.


Harbles said...

If you were King how would you mitigate this disater?

Harold Asmis said...

Ha Ha! I written how the tunnel should have been done, but then it wouldn't be economic for that little dribble of water.

I've been constantly foiled by Fool's Paradise for years. For instance the Sinking Transformer of Pickering, years past it's explosion date, the thing just keeps ticking.

And the Toronto earthquake! Never comes, and people go La, la, la. So I thought it would continue with this tunnel. One day the odds catch up.

Harold Asmis said...

Thinking more about this rockburst, the old Ministry that I used to know would have closed the operation down, and conducted an investigation. There is no reason for this to remain an isolated incident, and someone will eventually be killed. At that point, lawyers and panels will investigate! Ha!

Call a spade a spade, folks. It's a bloody ROCKBURST!